Leiberman: Just another science doubter?

Leiberman says he doesn't believe the polls that say that McCain is going to lose.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), one of GOP presidential nominee John McCain’s top supporters, said Friday that the Arizona senator’s poll numbers are “so extreme that I don’t believe them.”

While I can understand the sinking feeling that Leiberman has in his gut (something I've felt it in every national election--save two--since 1980), is his disbelief grounded in rational thought or wishful thinking?

Polling is a pretty scientific process in the political arena these days. But the difference in models can make a big difference in results. But when you look at the national polls only a week and a half before the election and see that Obama is up in every single one (from +3 to +14), it is hard to deny that things are looking up for the Democrats.

As any scientist can attest, the analysis is only as good as the model. Or the sample. Or the way the questions are posed in the poll itself. I'm the first to admit that election polls lack the rigor of more conservative statistical analyses. But in many ways, they mirror the same problems that all scientists face in analyzing our data. The accuracy of the analysis is dependent upon a number of important factors:

• That our sample is representative of our population
  
• The individual data points represent reality (i.e., respondents don't lie)
• That our assumptions (which vary by model) reflect reality

We can't know these things with certainty, which is why we allow for uncertainty in our models. That level is generally 5% in biostats anyway. My problem with polls is that they don't give their level of uncertainty. I have no idea whether there is any significant difference in the poll that results in a +3 for Obama or a +14 for Obama. It all depends on my margin of error.

We know for a fact that telephone polls that depend on landlines are not reflective of the population. Young people are vastly underrepresented among landline users. Time of day of a poll can also favor one age group over another. Disqualifying respondents based on past voting behavior also leaves out newly registered voters and voters energized by the novelty (?) of this presidential election. Interestingly enough, each of these widely reported problems with polls seems (by a common sense approach) to me to under represent Obama's likely voters (i.e., Obama may lead by even GREATER numbers). For this and many other reaons, I tend to think of polls as just slightly more reliable than my horoscope. Polls should be taken with a grain of salt.

But, in the grand scheme of things that is the last week of this election cycle, I'll take my grain of salt and weigh it against Leiberman's wishful thinking any day.

In a week, all those pollsters can figure out what was right and what was wrong in their models and improve a bit for the next time. While they do that, and no matter who is elected, I will certainly be celebrating the lame duck status of dear old 43.

Who you gonna to take economic advice from? A liberal, elitist Nobel Prize Winner or Joe the plumber?

Paul Krugman, recent winner of a Nobel Prize in economics, wrote an opinion piece today in which he called the Republican party pro-pleurocrat.

Pleurocrat?

*crickets*

No wonder we aren't making any progress with the average Joe. The average Joe can't spell pleurocrat, let along know the definition. Still, despite his use of elitist language, Krugman makes a number of good points. He rightly equates the exodus of lower and middle-class white guys to the Republican party as cattle following a grain truck to the slaughterhouse.

The Republican party built their base by capitalizing on racial and cultural intolerance as well as differences of opinion in the uses of our military. Apparently there is one thing that white guys aren't afraid of and that is being a martyr for their country. No wonder they are pro-one-hundred-years-war in Iraq. Dying is something they are good at. I always assumed that people voted with their pocketbooks. People voted jobs. I found it impossible to believe that people would vote in a manner that hurt themselves, benefited others (especially the "haves"), and would continue to do so generation after generation. But Joe the Plumber is case in point. He claims his differences with Obama were over tax policy. But is it any surprise that he called Obama "Sammy Davis, Jr."? I don't think Joe the Plumber is the same thing as the average Joe. Joe the Plumber is a closet racist. The average Joe is not.

To the Joe the Plumber types, tax policy is a code word for racism. In fact, I am of the general opinon that there are very few low- to middle-class Republicans who are in it for a die-hard belief in the Republican economic policies. Just about anything short of abortion rights seems to smack of racism to me these days. No one is dumb enough to vote against their own self-interests and self-preservation, unless blind hatred is behind it. We have to admit that there is a minority in this country that are white supremacists. They used to be out and loud. now they are closeted and sly. But they are still there. I don't worry about them so much. They no longer hold sway over anyone. Let their asses dry up in Klan country. I'm looking toward the future. They can be part of it, or they can get left behind.

To the average Joe's out there, listen up. Despite everything, McCain has not identified any meaningful way that he will change the course of the economy, but merely continue Bush's "disastrous policies". If Joe the Plumber sets aside his hatred and elects Obama, (thereby becoming an average Joe), he will get a tax break. If Joe the plumber is a racist and votes McCain into office, his individual lot in life might not change, it will probably get worse, but he'll get the satisfaction of knowing that most of the wealth in this country will remain in the hands of the white folks. Bravo, Joe P. Bravo.

Krugman also makes the point about how politicians and journalists, too, are out of touch with the average Joe. The average national income is roughly $44K. John McCain is under the impression that rich people make $5 million dollars a year. Well of course people who make $5 mil a year are rich. Charlie Gibson is under the impression that middle class incomes are $200,000. Is it any wonder that McCain is under the impression that his tax policies will benefit the average Joe? Is it any wonder that Charlie Gibson is under the impression that he is an average Joe? Let's look at the facts:


According to this chart, $150K is rich. Most of us make a third of that, and on average and we spend far beyond our means. But before you point a damning finger at the average Joe, realize that Joe has been spending on the good faith he has rising home equity. And spending on this faith was the only choice he had if he wanted to send his kids to college, and make a better life for himself and his family. Joe had to have faith in the economic indicators that were available to him. And all those indicators said that his home equity was rising and it was safe. He wasn't feeling the pinch. Banks were still willing to loan to him.

But economic indicators do not take into account Republican policies that undermine the entire economic system. Deregulation and smaller government oversight are the drumbeat of the Republican party.

If Joe elects McCain, he'll get the paycheck he deserves. Sometimes poverty is a hard lesson. Trust me. I know.

My Gram is Going to Vote

I've discussed my upbringing in eastern Kentucky before. The river town where I grew up lies at a point where Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia meet. What I didn't realize is how important the area is in the elections. I've read that Ohio falls red or blue based on the votes cast in a small number of southeastern and southwestern counties in Ohio. Suddenly, I see the news filled with announcements of candidates traveling to towns with names very familiar to me: Portsmouth, South Point, Ironton. Anyone who lives in a tri-state area understands that the lines between states blur. Points of entry are numerous. Bridges at Huntington, Ashland, Cattletsburg, Russell, and Portsmouth allow easy access across the river and its tributaries. I've been to the movies in Portsmouth; my brother' wedding reception was held in South Point; I've gotten a parking ticket in Ironton. I went to college in Huntington, where my grandparents all lived. In fact, when I was a kid, trips across the river were a regular occurrence because southern Ohio was wet and eastern Kentucky was dry. My father took us over on beer runs regularly. When I got a little older, I made trips across to West Virginia because the legal age was 18 versus 21 in Kentucky and Ohio.

It is amusing to me when this area is referred to as Appalachia. It is the foothills of the Appalachians. It is not the Appalachians proper. It's hill country and I'd be surprised if a single hill in the area gets much above 900 ft. But it is isolated. It may be the 21st century, but some folks are clinging to their 19th century resentment. I've talked about my issues with "my people" before. So I read with interest this article. Read it. I'll wait.

How bad does a ticket or economic prospects have to be to force racists to vote for the smart guy that one? Apparently pretty bad. But the good news is that in the toss up that is racism vs. your own pocketbook, it appears that the pocketbook wins. Which brings me to the point of this post. My grandmother announced to me the other day that she was thinking about voting. She was thinking about voting for Obama. Now, I love my grandmother with all that I am, but this is the same woman who once told me that is was okay to talk to black folks over the back fence, but you wouldn't...you know...actually invite them into your house. She announced to me as a sign of the changing times that "young kids today just all pile in a car together". She has led an exceedingly segregated life. She goes to an all-white Baptist church. I'm trying to think where my grandmother might actually have had to interact with anyone who wasn't white. Maybe at the grocery store. Maybe at hospital when she volunteered. But by and large, she is isolated from any ideas or cultural influences that are different from her own. My grandmother is 90 years old.

And what is driving her to vote for someone she wouldn't invite into her house? Sarah Palin. Now this isn't a matter of sexism trumping racism. If anything, I have done more to move my grandmother's ideas about what is proper for a woman to do. My grandmother calls ME when she needs help around her house. I painted, papered, and rewired her kitchen. She calls ME when she can't get her answering machine, VCR, or television remote to work. I'm her go-to handy-person.

My grandmother, who had announced months ago that she was sitting out this election (she didn't like McCain but had no intention of voting for Obama), is driven to vote for an African American by what she thinks is the incredible incompetence of McCain's vice presidential selection.

My grandmother represents that sort of ingrained racism that I just took for granted growing up. It isn't in your face or even seething below the surface. If it makes any sense, it isn't purposefully mean. It just is. Its the kind of racism that makes all the black kids sit at the same table in the lunchroom at high school. It's the kind of racism that results in all-white parties. You know, the kind where you'd invite your black friend but then he/she would be the only black person there and then they'd be uncomfortable. In reality, you aren't sure who'd be uncomfortable. It's the kind of racism that, when the unwritten mores are broken, isn't likely to get any comments unless someone drinks too much beer and gets mouthy and the last thing you want to have happen is for someone to actually say something. It isn't a racism you can point your finger at...something more you get a feeling about. In some ways, that kind of racism is worse than the sign on the water fountain. It's insidious, it's accepted without being acknowledged. It just is.

The fact of the matter is, I'm glad my grandmother is being faced with this choice. I'm glad America is. If there hadn't been this grand intersection of economic and political issues right before this election, my grandmother might never have had an opportunity to challenge her own thinking about race. She's 90 years old. Her opportunities to change deeply seated beliefs are running out. I am filled with great optimism to know that even at 90, paradigm shifts are possible.

The Pictoral Election

From FARK